VERY CLOSE – AT 11:29 A.M. ET:   Those are probably the best words to describe the latest election predictions.  Logic tells us that the Republicans should be winning by substantial margins, but polls are very tight in most places. 

Even though President Obama is deeply unpopular, the Republican Party isn't winning any popularity contests either.  It does, though, have some excellent candidates this year, like Joni Ernst in Iowa.  What it lacks is a great, popular platform. 

Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control of the Senate, a crucial goal.  Control of the Senate will block any crazy Obama Supreme Court nominations.  I don't want to see Eric Holder in black robes. 

Some late polling, from CNN, via The Hill:

Two key Senate races remain toss-ups, according to a pair of new polls conducted by CNN, with Democrats holding a slight edge in North Carolina and Republicans up slightly in Iowa.

Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) leads Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) by 49 to 47 percent in a key Senate battleground, according to a new live-caller poll conducted by ORC International for CNN.
Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) has a 48 to 46 percent lead over North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in CNN and ORC's North Carolina poll, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 4 percent.

That libertarian percentage can destroy the Republican shot at that seat.  Makes me furious.

Other recent polling has found a tight contest in both races. Both Hagan and Ernst have had the slimmest of edges in most recent surveys, well within the margin of error.

Democrats likely need to win both contests to have a decent chance of hanging onto their Senate majority next Tuesday.

The live-caller polls of 647 likely Iowa voters and 559 North Carolina voters were conducted Oct. 27-30 and have margins of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

COMMENT:  That last sentence is odd.  It suggests that "likely" voters were polled in Iowa and "voters" (probably registered) were polled in North Carolina.  Polls of likely voters tend to tip Republican because Republicans are more likely to vote.  Polls of registered voters tend to tilt Democratic.

The CNN polls reflect the others.  Tight races.  This election will depend on who votes.  The Democrats have a proved ground game, a get-out-the-vote mechanism.  The Republican ground game is getting better, but is unproved. 

November 1, 2014